Bardstown, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

714
FXUS63 KLMK 211844
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather expected this weekend and into early next week.

* Temperatures will increase through the period, with several days
  of above normal temperatures and well above normal humidity levels.

* Daily highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with
  dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s.  Prolonged oppressive
  heat/humidity is expected next week with afternoon heat indices
  reaching the lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Afternoon diurnal cumulus field is in full swing across the region.
Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures from area ASOSs and the KY
Mesonet show readings in the mid-upper 80s across much of the
region.  There were a few spots that have touched 90, mainly along
and west of I-65.  The urban heat islands are also in the lower 90s.

No significant weather is expected over much of the region this
afternoon.  A few very isolated showers/storms could develop this
afternoon across south-central Kentucky.  Best chances would be
roughly along the Cumberland Parkway corridor from Bowling Green to
Russell Springs. Afternoon highs of 85-90 are expected, with the
urban areas topping out in the 91-93 degree range.  Dewpoints are
currently in the low-mid 70s.  A few 80 degree dewpoints were noted
out across western KY earlier, but have mixed out a bit into the
upper 70s. Afternoon heat index values will be in the lower 90s
across our eastern areas with upper 90s to low 100s along and west
of I-65. Temperatures this evening will fall into the 80s.

Overnight, mostly clear skies are expected.  It will be a warm night
with overnight lows only falling into the low-mid 70s.  Some of the
urban centers will likely remain in the upper 70s to around 80
overnight.

For Sunday, not much change is expected across the region.  We`ll
see another diurnal Cu field set up in the late morning and into the
afternoon hours.  Despite being under the ridge, we may see some
very isolated showers/storms develop.  The best chances look to be
across the southern third of KY.  For now, still think the
probability of coverage will be less than 15%, but some lucky folks
may get a cooling shower/storm.  Highs on the day will be in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.  The urban heat islands will be slightly
warmer with mainly lower 90s.  Afternoon heat index readings will be
in the lower-middle 90s east of I-65, with upper 90s and lower 100s
west of I-65.  Widespread 105 heat indices do not look likely, so
will continue advertising the oppressive humidity and warmth with a
Special Weather Statement.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the longer term period, mainly dry weather with above normal
temperatures and well above normal dewpoints/humidity are expected.
Upper level ridge axis will hold sway just to our east through mid-
week with more of a baggy trough hanging out over the western CONUS.
Operational and ensemble models are in good agreement here with
relatively little spread over our region, yielding a higher than
normal confidence forecast.

Despite being under the ridge, we`ll see a daily diurnal Cu field
develop along with an increase in afternoon instability.  A few
isolated showers/storms may develop each afternoon (Sunday through
Wednesday) though the coverage will be the least on Sunday, but may
increase slightly Monday and into Tuesday.  Coverage continues to
look less than 15% or so, so the ongoing forecast will continue to
include dry forecast wording.  Look for afternoon highs in the upper
80s to the lower 90s.  Dewpoints will remain in the mid-upper 70s
with a few 80 degree dewpoints (mainly in the mid-late morning
hours).  This combination of highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s with
dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s will create heat index values each
afternoon in the upper 90s to low 100s.  Overnight temperatures will
not result in much relief as temps will only fall into the low-mid
70s while the urban heat islands remain in the upper 70s to around
80.

Our current forecasts do not suggest that we`ll hit heat advisory
criteria at least through mid-week.  However, as we continue to dry
the excessively wet soils out, temperatures may start to overachieve
beyond Tuesday.  If so, we may start flirting with advisory
criteria, especially in our western/northwestern CWA.

From mid-week and beyond, the ridge axis becomes a little more flat
on the northern periphery as several shortwave troughs move across
the northern US through the Great Lakes region.  Overall, the upper
ridge is not expected to move all that much and we`ll likely remain
fairly dry in most locations.  There will be scattered
showers/storms that develop during the heat of the afternoon.  Model
soundings across the area show diurnal build ups of instability, but
wind shear through the period remains very weak.  So the convection
that develops will be your typical popcorn/pulse storm variety that
may bring some temperature relief to some.  Highs from mid-week
onward will feature daytime highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
With dewpoints remaining in the 70s, afternoon heat indices in the
mid-upper 90s to the lower 100s will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period.  We`ll
see a diurnal Cu field this afternoon with bases around 3000-3500 ft
AGL.  This Cu field should diminish rapidly toward sunset.
Southwest surface winds are expected with speeds of 4-8kts.  Winds
will shift more to the south this evening and through the overnight
period.  Fog looks very limited overnight and VFR conditions are
expected to continue into the day on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ